Dark horse
Canada
Only the 21st strongest side on paper, yet they reach the semi-finals in 11.9% of the runs: the deepest run of any genuine outsider.
World Cup 2026 · Knockout model
We ran the knockouts 10,000 times.
The Round of 32 is settled. Now an Elo and Poisson Monte-Carlo model plays every match from the Round of 16 to the final, over and over. No vibes, no pundits. Here is who lifts the trophy most often, who scores the goals, and which bracket is the group of death.
Most likely champion
Argentina
20.9%
ARG wins 2,087 of 10,000 simulated tournaments
Most likely final: Argentina vs France (12.7% of runs)
Run it yourself
Every tournament is simulated live in your browser. They add up: keep running to sharpen the odds, or spin a single tournament and see who gets lucky. Reset whenever you want a clean slate.
Tournaments per run
Your tournaments
0
Title odds
Model baselineThe 16 teams still in it, ranked by how often they lift the trophy across 10,000 simulated tournaments. The bar is the title chance relative to the favourite (Argentina), whose bar is full. On the right: title chance, tournaments won out of 10,000, and chance of reaching the final.
- 1Argentina20.9%2,087 / 10,00036.3% to final
- 2France19.7%1,970 / 10,00034.7% to final
- 3Spain13.4%1,338 / 10,00023.5% to final
- 4Brazil11.1%1,111 / 10,00022.1% to final
- 5England10.7%1,073 / 10,00020.8% to final
- 6Portugal6.0%602 / 10,00012.6% to final
- 7Belgium3.9%386 / 10,0008.8% to final
- 8Morocco3.8%380 / 10,0009.3% to final
- 9Colombia2.7%269 / 10,0008.0% to final
- 10USA2.6%261 / 10,0006.4% to final
- 11Mexico2.3%231 / 10,0006.0% to final
- 12Switzerland1.4%135 / 10,0004.5% to final
- 13Canada0.8%81 / 10,0003.5% to final
- 14Egypt0.3%27 / 10,0001.1% to final
- 15Norway0.3%26 / 10,0001.2% to final
- 16Paraguay0.2%23 / 10,0001.2% to final
The Golden Boot race
Model baselineGoals get shared out across the knockout matches a team is expected to play, weighted by each player's scoring rate, role and age. These are model estimates, not predictions of any single tournament. Run the simulator and this race updates to your tournaments.
Golden Boot favourite
Lionel Messi
62.5% to win it7.64 xG
- 2
Kylian Mbappé7.47xG - 3
Harry Kane5.86xG - 4
Erling Haaland5.40xG - 5
Mikel Oyarzabal4.54xG - 6
Vinícius Júnior4.39xG - 7
Ousmane Dembélé4.36xG - 8
Ismaïla Sarr4.00xG
Most likely assisters(estimated)
Bruno Guimarães3.36xA
Michael Olise3.20xA
Alexander Isak3.00xA- Kylian Mbappé2.25xA
Bukayo Saka2.21xA- Brahim Díaz2.11xA
Round of 32 results
The opening knockout round is done and sixteen teams are through. These are the full-time scores; ties still level after extra time were settled on penalties.
- GERGermany1-1PARParaguayPAR won on penalties
- FRAFrance3-0SWESweden
- RSASouth Africa0-1CANCanada
- NETNetherlands1-1MORMoroccoMOR won on penalties
- PORPortugal2-1CROCroatia
- SPASpain3-0AUSAustria
- USAUSA2-0BIHBosnia and Herzegovina
- BELBelgium3-2SENSenegal
- BRABrazil2-1JAPJapan
- CIVIvory Coast1-2NORNorway
- MEXMexico2-0ECUEcuador
- ENGEngland2-1CODDR Congo
- ARGArgentina3-2CPVCape Verde
- AUSAustralia1-1EGYEgyptEGY won on penalties
- SWISwitzerland2-0ALGAlgeria
- COLColombia1-0GHAGhana
What the numbers are saying
Model baselineFour things the 10,000 runs turned up that the seedings alone would miss.
Bracket of death
One quarter, three contenders
Spain, Portugal and Belgium share a quarter of the last 16. Only one of them reaches the semi-finals.
Home comforts
Three hosts still standing
USA, Mexico and Canada reached the last 16. USA carry the best home odds at 2.6%.
Anyone's cup
No no-hopers left
Every side still standing wins it in at least one of the 10,000 runs. Even Paraguay, the longest shot, takes it 0.2% of the time.
Pick your winners
The Round of 32 is settled, so you start from the last 16. Tap a team to send it through, lock as many or as few as you like, then let the model simulate the rest. Your forced picks reshape the title odds above.
0 picks locked